Verizon Communications
- Entry price
- $44.00
- Blended target
- $58.04
- Upside
- +31.9%
- 3-year IRR
- 14.7%
- Wireless connections
- 147M retail
Thesis
The pricing war is largely in the rearview mirror, and the Street is still anchored to the past.
Verizon traded near $31 in late 2023 after a perfect storm of regulatory issues and intense competition. Triangulating first-party research — six store visits across Lee, Collier, and Palm Beach counties, Wayback Machine pricing scrapes, and two years of earnings-call sentiment analysis — we found competition cooling into a rational triopoly that the Street had not modeled. Layered on top: the ~$20 billion all-cash Frontier acquisition closed in January 2026 with $500mm of expected annual run-rate cost savings, and a convergence strategy of phone-plus-internet bundling that raises margins and lowers churn.
The Street's view
- Near-term headwinds dominate the story
- Telecom competition compresses pricing indefinitely
- Growth is structurally capped
Our view
- The pricing war is ending, unmodeled by the Street
- Frontier is a game-changer on cost and lock-in
- Sell-side revisions are being raised aggressively
Team
PM: Dario Benes. Team “Can You Hear Me Now?” — Sandro, Denis, Ashley, Emalee, Sergio, Camille.